Delays in bringing advanced maize, cotton, and potato varieties to Kenyan farmers have cost the nation an estimated Ksh 20.4 billion over the past five years, a new study reveals.
This staggering loss has denied the country vital opportunities to boost food security, farmer incomes, and environmental health, exacerbated by persistent misinformation campaigns that hinder science-based progress.
The report by the Breakthrough Institute, the Alliance for Science, the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), ISAAA (International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications), and the International Potato Center (CIP), projects that these three advanced crop varieties could inject Ksh 60.7 billion into Kenya’s economy over the next three decades, if adopted without further delays.
Quantifiable benefits for farmers and consumers
The study’s estimates are based on the significant potential of these advanced varieties to deliver higher crop yields, boost farmer profits, reduce reliance on expensive pesticides, and ultimately lower food prices for consumers. For instance, advanced maize varieties, developed by local scientists, naturally resist pests like the stem borer, which also protects the crop from mould that produces aflatoxin – a dangerous toxin linked to liver cancer. This means improved food safety and public health for all Kenyans.
In addition, adopting advanced maize and cotton could significantly reduce Kenya’s greenhouse gas emissions by 0.2% to 0.7% of the national total, contributing to the fight against climate change.
“This report clearly shows that embracing advanced crop varieties in Kenya would generate substantial economic benefits,” said lead author Dr. Willy Daniel Kyalo. “By increasing yields, these advanced varieties also help protect Kenya’s precious forests and biodiversity by reducing the need for new farmland, while simultaneously cutting greenhouse gas emissions that fuel global climate change.”
Misinformation harming food security
“As Kenya grapples with ongoing food deficits, misinformation campaigns are actively harming science-based efforts to help local farmers improve yields of staple crops. News outlets, social media, and even some political leaders are misleading the public with untrue and irresponsible statements about advanced crop varieties. KUBICO, a guild of biotechnology and biosafety experts, wants to set the record straight: these crops are safe and essential for our food security,” said Prof. Joel W. Ochieng, Secretary General of the Kenya University Biotechnology Consortium (KUBICO).
The Ksh 20.4 billion figure represents the estimated cost of delaying the introduction of three advanced crop varieties—insect-resistant (Bt) cotton and maize, and late blight disease-resistant potato—for a period of just five years. These varieties were developed through the collaborative efforts of African scientists, supported by organisations including AATF.
Significantly, Kenyan scientists developed the two advanced Bt maize varieties locally through a public-private partnership, utilising biotechnology that was donated royalty-free.
“AATF chose to focus research efforts on these three crops because they are so important for achieving food security and better livelihoods for smallholder farmers in Kenya,” said study co-author Vitumbiko Chinoko, manager of AATF’s Open Forum on Agricultural Biotechnology (OFAB) program. “Global evidence consistently shows that advanced crop varieties, with their superior pest and disease resistance, can significantly boost yields and incomes. This research now quantifies their immense economic value to Kenya – and the steep price we pay for delays.”
Understanding advanced crop varieties
The advanced maize varieties, for instance, utilise a gene from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), a common and harmless soil-based bacterium already widely used as a crop protection spray in organic farming.
Bt specifically targets harmful insect pests and has been proven safe for humans, beneficial animals, and insects through numerous global studies. Crucially, these advanced maize varieties are developed solely for insect pest management and are NOT designed to withstand applications of herbicides like Roundup (glyphosate).
Dr. Emma Kovak, Senior food and agriculture analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, urged Kenyan policymakers to prioritise the timely commercialisation of these and future advanced crop varieties.
She also recommended increasing funding for agricultural research and development to adapt more advanced varieties for local cultivation and boosting regional seed production capacity to give farmers more choices.
Kenya successfully commercialised advanced Bt cotton, which resists the destructive bollworm pest, in 2020. Three advanced Bt maize varieties, offering protection from devastating fall armyworm and stem borer pests, are currently awaiting Cabinet approval.
The advanced potato, designed to combat late blight disease, is undergoing final field trials, moving closer to commercialisation.
“These advanced crop varieties are specifically designed to empower Kenya’s smallholder farmers, who make up 70% of our maize growers and 98% of our potato farmers,” Chinoko said. “Our maize farmers regularly battle stem borer and fall armyworm, losing 15-20% of their harvest annually. Potato farmers face the devastating late blight disease, which can wipe out 100% of their crop. Advanced crop varieties offer a safe, effective, and often more affordable alternative to traditional pesticides, which can be costly and require specialised application.”
Collectively, these advanced varieties promise a multi-faceted win for Kenya: reduced pesticide use, higher yields and farmer incomes, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and enhanced biodiversity protection by preserving our natural habitats.
Food aid and national dignity
Specifically, five years of delays in adopting advanced maize have cost Kenyan farmers and consumers Ksh 8.7 billion. This loss is largely due to the continued need for expensive pesticides with traditional crops. Had we adopted earlier, farmers could have produced an additional 194,000 tonnes of maize, equivalent to about 25% of Kenya’s 2022 maize imports.
This persistent deficit often forces Kenya to rely on food aid from donors, a significant dignity issue when our own farmers could be producing this food using advanced, proven technologies.
The very food aid we receive is often sourced from countries that grow these advanced varieties, highlighting the missed opportunity for our own food security and national pride. For cotton, farmers could have produced an extra 650 tonnes of advanced cotton, offsetting approximately 12% of our 2022 cotton imports.
The commercialisation of advanced potatoes is projected to bring KSh 21.2 billion in benefits to Kenyan farmers and Ksh 10.9 billion to consumers over the next 30 years. This would significantly strengthen our food security by boosting domestic production of Kenya’s second-most important food crop after maize.
Part of a broader solution
While advanced crop varieties offer powerful tools to address critical challenges like pests and diseases, we recognise they are part of a broader solution for Kenya’s agricultural ecosystem. They are not a silver bullet, but a vital component alongside good agronomic practices, access to markets, and supportive policies to achieve comprehensive food security and farmer prosperity.
“We view these findings as an urgent call to action for the Kenyan government, offering valuable lessons not just for our nation, but for other African countries facing similar agricultural challenges,” Chinoko said.
Kenyan scientists follow a rigorous and transparent process for developing advanced crop varieties, strictly regulated by the Biosafety Act and the National Biosafety Authority (NBA). The NBA’s regulatory process considers both robust scientific assessment and public input, with recent countrywide consultations to gather views. To ensure full transparency, Kenyan law mandates clear labelling for all advanced crop products.